Diagnosis Bias and Value Attribution in Negotiation
The
Brafman brothers’ book,
Sway, is relevant to negotiation and mediation in several ways. Here is one.
Diagnosis bias and value attribution are irrational forces at work under the level of our consciousness. They are negotiation challenges. Diagnosis bias is when we label a person or a situation and then ignore any evidence contrary to our initial diagnosis. Value attribution is when we assign a person or a thing certain qualities (e.g., case value or likelihood of prevailing at trial), based on our initial perceived value; then we stick to it even in the face of objective evidence to the contrary. Put the two together, and they are even more likely to sway us.
Business School professors
Barry Staw and
Ha Hoang analyzed the performance of NBA players for five years after they were drafted. They looked at the usual metrics: scoring percentage, field goal percentages, free throw percentages, assists, blocked shots and steals. Those players with the best stats got the most playing time, right? As it turns out, they did not. This baffled the researchers until they correlated the players’ playing time not with performance, but with the order in which they were selected in the draft. They discovered that those players drafted #1 had more playing time than players drafted #2, who had more playing time than players drafted #3, etc. In other words, for five years after they were drafted (five years was the length of time of the study), the best predictor of playing time was draft selection order. What’s more: the coaches weren’t aware they were giving players minutes based on draft selection order, not performance. That is how compelling these irrational sways are.
How does this apply to negotiation? You can imagine an
impasse in mediation where each side believes that its initial case evaluation was correct, regardless of new facts, inferences or arguments presented at the mediation.
If you want to settle a case for rational reasons, here are some ways to counteract the irrational you. To counterbalance the diagnosis bias, be mindful, pay attention, and observe things for what they are. To offset the value attribution sway, be open-minded, keep your evaluations tentative, and make the effort to consider the case from different angles. There is usually more than one way to interpret the facts. Then, give yourself permission to be flexible in response to changed circumstances.